WHAT BREXIT MEANS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKET

19 June was an important day for the history and future of the UK, as that is when the Brexit negotiations are to commence. One question that has been buzzing among the property sector and its followers is, ‘How will Brexit affect the housing prices and property market in the UK?’, and that is more than understandable.

So we’ve curated a short list of things that we are currently seeing and that we at Property Property Property believe we’ll be seeing soon, within the market:

Negotiations

As mentioned above, negotiations have taken place from Monday 19 June 2017 for the after-effects of the Brexit vote. These negotiations between the UK and EU will determine the state of the economy, which will also then determine the outcome of the housing market. However, we also believe there will be talk on trading, which may also affect the number of houses and flats springing from the ground in places such as London.

Market Fluctuation

As many people are wary about the value of their home or purchasing a property post-Brexit as they’re not too confident in what the market will hold, and neither are we as we are yet to see any significant difference in the market. However, reports have shown that the number of house purchases since the Brexit vote has dipped and we believe we’ll continue to see fluctuations in the market for the next few months until the economy has been stabilised.

Speculations

There has been some speculation within the property industry on what Brexit will actually mean and how it’ll affect us. However, a survey of forecasts was taken by the Investment Property Forum in the latter part of 2016, have shown that the capitals value in commercial real estate is predicted/expected to fall by 3.6 percent in 2017. On the country to that, rents have been predicted to remain high.

Nevertheless, these are all speculations and predictions based on the small changes that may have occurred the weeks leading to the Brexit vote and the weeks’ post-Brexit vote. What we are most concerned about is the future of our property market.

So at Property Property Property, we’ll like to know what your comments and thoughts are on Brexit and how it may change out property market.

This is set to be positive year for Aberdeen’s commercial market

The political landscape and predictions are widespread over how the snap general election could affect the markets. With Scotland dealing with the negative impact on property investment and market confidence amongst some investors and developers because of the prospect of a second independence referendum.

However, in Aberdeen, the atmosphere has largely driven by the fortunes of the oil and gas industry for the past two years, with the sector now showing largely positive signs. But not to say the wider political backdrop is of no concern, the UK’s vote to leave the EU immediately benefited Aberdeen’s oil and gas economy. The North Sea producers have profited from production costs being incurred in a depreciated sterling relative to a product sold in US dollars, as have local service companies pitching for business around the world conducted in a largely dollar-denominated market. With a growing confidence in the local air which is now impacting itself in our property market.

The office sector was a most impacted sector by the energy industries. The fortunes between 2013 and 2015 fluctuating and with the best quality space have maintained headline rents and interest from occupiers despite carrying a record level of voids. However, it must be said that much of the remaining stock has seen its day, being functionally or economically challenged or located on peripheral estates which have long been a unique feature of Aberdeen’s property supply.  

In comparison, Aberdeen’s industrial market has held up reasonably well. During 2016, take-up was in line with the 10-year average with rents generally remaining stable although the supply of second-hand stock has increased.

Investor appetite for Aberdeen is beginning to show signs of increasing. A North American investor, for example, acquired the Lloyd’s Register building in Prime Four Business Park for £41 million in February, pushing Q1 office investment levels to £49 million, more than the total volume recorded during 2016. Investors are seeking a ‘flight to quality’, looking for well let assets in the city, which may offer more attractive yields than elsewhere in the UK.

The good news is that office lettings in Q1 2017 were 181,000 sq ft (16,815 sq m), the highest quarterly take-up since Q3 2013. This clearly indicates that the local mood has moved up a gear, in part reflected by oil companies Total and Marathon committing to new leases and a number of large requirements circulating.

The further positive news comes with Hurricane Energy announcing a new find west of Shetland with estimated recoverable reserves of a billion barrels and small local independent Chrysoar announcing a $3 billion acquisition from Shell comprising 10 separate assets in the UK continental shelf with funding from US private equity firm EIG Partners.

The smart money is clearly backing a more positive future for Aberdeen and the property market is starting to reflect this.